Home Buyers

22November

Mortgage Applications Dwindle

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Prospective Fed Chairman, Janet Yellen, continues to ensure members of the Senate Banking Committee that she favors robust QE measures until the economy and labor market can exhibit strong growth.  She told the panel on Thursday “I consider it imperative that we do what we can to promote a very strong recovery.”  This has helped to send the equity markets soaring to new record highs but strong improvements elsewhere remain to be seen.  While the Fed believes the asset purchases have been nursing the economy back to health, the housing market has flat-lined or in some cases started to retract.

Mortgage Applications DropNotably in housing, mortgage applications continued to dwindle from the prior week’s report.  Applications dropped 1.8 percent according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) for the week of November 8th.  The prior week’s report was revised down from -7 percent to -2.8 percent.  These numbers come of the heels of a higher 30-year average fixed mortgage rate for conforming loans of 4.44 percent compared to 4.32 percent in the prior week.  The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averages for Jumbo loans and FHA backed loans also experienced increases that reached monthly highs.

Home builder confidence was reported flat due to rising construction costs this month.  The recent spike in interest rates over the last few months has hurt mortgage applications and construction costs are affecting the housing supply.  Other factors besides interest rates are influencing home buyers.  Rick Judson, NAHB Chairman, said in a release, “Given the current interest rate and pricing environment, consumers continue to show interest in purchasing new homes, but are holding back because Congress keeps pushing critical decisions on budget, tax and government spending issues down the road.”

The number of people looking to purchase a home dropped half a percent according to the purchase index put out by the MBA which is typical in a rising rate environment.  Interest rates are still historically low but the continued uncertainty from the Fed and Washington will continue to keep home buyers on the sidelines until more clarity can be seen.  The high unemployment numbers also add to the problem.  Inevitably this will hurt mortgage application numbers as home buyers sit on the sidelines.

For information on effective ways to manage institutional and individual portfolios nationwide, or to shop for real estate visit First Preston HT. Like us on Facebook. Follow us on Twitter.

14November

Homeownership Rate Tries To Rebound

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The U.S. homeownership rate increased from its lowest level since the third quarter of 1995, indicating that the housing market is starting to attract more buyers.  This reading climbed from 65 percent in the second quarter of this year to 65.3 percent in the third quarter of this year.  Homebuyers are still trying to get into the market before interest rates and prices jump any higher.  The 30-year fixed rate was 4.27 percent during the last week of October.

homeownership rateOne reason homeownership has remained so slow can be linked to the large percentage of young Americans still living at home with mom and dad or those who are renting and living with roommates.  This group of young people has experienced some of the sharpest drops in homeownership since the financial crash in 2008.  Jed Kolko of Trulia, an online real estate company commented, “The share of millennials living with their parents rose from 31.4 percent in 2012 Q3 to 31.6 percent in 2013 Q3, based on the raw Census data. During the recession, many people doubled up with roommates or lived with relatives, including young adults who stayed in their parents’ homes. Even now, years after the recession technically ended, young adults remain much more likely to live with their parents than before the recession.”

Unemployment for young adults is still very high, even though it fell to 74.6 percent in October according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  The lack of employed young adults makes it very challenging for this group to obtain credit to purchase a home, thereby further damaging the homeownership rate.  Kolko reported there is an estimated 2.4 “missing households” of people who should either be in rentals or be homeowners but are not.  The prime age group for housing demand includes ages 25-34 year-olds.  With employment rates for this group still below the levels seen before the recession, the housing market has reason to worry about its recovery.

The recent jobs report release Friday appeared to be positive but it did not take into account the 932,000 Americans that dropped out of the labor force in October.  This takes the labor force participation rate of 62.8 percent to its lowest since 1978 (the third highest monthly rise in people dropping out of the labor force in U.S. history).  As young adults continue to face challenges obtaining employment, homeownership will continue to struggle because they will opt to live at home until economic conditions improve.

For information on effective ways to manage institutional and individual portfolios nationwide, or to shop for real estate visit First Preston HT. Like us on Facebook. Follow us on Twitter.

12November

Bridging the Down Payment Cash Gap — (Part 2 in a 2 Part Series)

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Improving-Real-Estate-Markets

Improving Real Estate Markets

While most Americans see homeownership as a good financial choice, many are sidelined by 20% down payment requirements.  Recent surveys indicate that 31% of Boomers and 31% of Gen Y respondents consider 20% down payments a major obstacle.

According to a recent CNBC report, the housing industry activity has seen better days. Investor demand has catapulted prices up 12% year-over-year to “unsustainable levels” in some markets according to Fitch Ratings. Prior month mortgage applications fell 7%, refi apps swooned 8%, and home purchase applications tanked by 5% according to latest reports. Perhaps these trends and others have inspired the lending industry to showcase alternatives to the 20% down payment rule.

A large down payment, low debt ratio and a top credit score can typically qualify buyers for lowest interest rates and best mortgage terms. For well qualified buyers who don’t have a 20% down payment, banks are now showcasing conventional loans with 5% down payment options; while private and governmental sources fund and spotlight over 1500 home buyer assistance programs.

This is the second segment of a two-part series. We’ll spotlight seven down payment resources to help bridge the down payment cash gap.  First Time Homebuyers

Down Payment Assistance –Have you ever wished that there was a one-stop resource combining all of the available forms of down payment assistance in one place? Down Payment Resource (DPR) is a national databank of various forms of down payment assistance available throughout the country, including local, county, state, and federal programs in all 50 states. Programs include those reserved for teachers, veterans, healthcare workers, etc., as well as a multitude of private programs.

Multiple Listing Services across the country opt-in to the service, connecting local members who then provide access to their homebuyer clients. DPR Vice President of Business Development Beverly Faull states, “This is the only nationwide resource which aggregates more than 1,500 programs from over 1,000 providers into an integrated, online program finder.”

Major Banks & Credit Unions — Credit Unions, are jumping into the mix, offering attractive terms for qualified borrowers.

According to CNN news, several major banks such as Wells Fargo, TD Bank and Bank of America,  have begun offering loans with down payments as low as 5%. Some will even allow gifted funds to cover 2% of the sales price, leaving the buyer with a 3% down payment opportunity. Even million dollar property purchasers seek out lower down payment alternatives.  Market dynamics have shifted and it’s worth taking a second look at traditional lender offerings.

HomePath Mortgage—Available only on real estate owned by Fannie Mae, a HomePath mortgage is a conventional mortgage requiring 5 percent down with no private mortgage insurance.

 Shared Equity Financing Arrangements (SEFA)—First-time home buyers are again turning to the traditional parent-backed loan, but with a twist. Loans are now formalized with a profit-sharing clause for parents.  A legal agreement spells out the particulars such as who pays taxes insurance, maintenance, etc. and the length of the agreement. Profits are divided when the property is sold.

Veterans Administration (VA)—VA Loans, great for qualifying veterans, feature low or no down payments. It is possible to bypass private mortgage insurance.

U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA Loans)—Rural property USDA loans may cover 100% of the price of the property. Mortgage insurance is required, however at lower rates than many other funding types. Buyers are often surprised to find that non-farm properties may qualify.

Good Neighbor Next Door Loans (HUD.gov)—Qualifying applicants can receive a 50% discount on home prices. There is a 3-year residency requirement. The program is designed for law enforcement, pre-k through 12th grade teachers, emergency medical techs and firefighters.

While 20% down payments  dominated the lending scene for the last few years,  conventional lenders now signal a willingness to be more flexible on down payment options for well qualified buyers.

For information on effective ways to manage institutional and individual real estate portfolios nationwide, or to shop for real estate visit First Preston HT. Like us on Facebook. Follow us on Twitter.

6November

Bridging the Down Payment Cash Gap | 10 Evolving Resources

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While most Americans see homeownership as a good financial choice, many find that buying is easier said than done.  Recent surveys indicate that 31% of Boomers and 31% of Gen Y respondents consider 20% down payments a major obstacle.

Improving-Real-Estate-Markets

Improving Real Estate Markets

Creative down payment options are emerging and so is the debate about whether low down payments lead to default. The benefits of a sizeable down payment are well documented. As home price appreciation outpaces wage growth however, prospective buyers worry that while waiting to save a 20% down payment; home price appreciation and rising interest rates will price them out of the market.

One thing is certain; buyers at both ends of the price spectrum are now exploring ways to conserve cash while pursuing the home of their dreams.  Today’s segment spotlights four of ten financing options qualified buyers are exploring to help bridge the down payment cash gap.

Shared Appreciation Mortgages—In the luxury home market, shared appreciation mortgages are emerging as a way to own without exhausting cash reserves for hefty down payments.  Bloomberg BusinessWeek showcased buyer Jeff Uter, a business consultant purchasing a $780,000 property in Orange County, CA. Instead of investing the $156,000 down payment from personal assets, Uter funded half the down payment and accepted the remaining $78,000 from San Francisco –based investor FirstRex. The investor agreed to a 40 percent share of proceeds from the future sale of the property. This approach is limited to high-dollar properties primarily in California, Washington, Oregon, Massachusetts and Connecticut. A number of luxury home lenders now allow such participation.

Navy Federal—Located in Vienna, VA, Navy Federal is reportedly the nation’s largest credit union. Members include the military, plus many but not all civilian employees of the military and Defense Department members and family.  Loans do not require private mortgage insurance (PMI). Spokesperson Dana DeSarno reported that their “Homebuyer’s Choice Program” provides 100% financing, for members not eligible for VA loans. Many of their borrowers are first-time homebuyers.

FHA Loans— FHA’s $100 Down Payment Program is still available in designated states. (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands). The program is available to qualified owner-occupant buyers, only on HUD properties which meet condition requirements for FHA financing.

In other states, qualified buyers can purchase HUD homes for 3.5% down with an FHA loan.  Mortgage insurance is required.

In the next segment we will review six additional funding options plus an online resource containing more than 1,500 down payment programs from over 1,000 providers.

For information on effective ways to manage institutional and individual real estate portfolios nationwide, or to shop for real estate visit First Preston HT. Like us on Facebook. Follow us on Twitter.

17October

Boomerang Buyers | The Next Big Wave?

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ID-10076536Are “boomerang buyers” the missing link needed to accelerate the housing recovery? How many are eligible to purchase sooner as a result of recent changes to FHA guidelines and are they even interested in owning a home again? Could this impact the profitability model of reo-to-rental investors?

If interest rates remain low, the stage may be set to see a new wave of homebuyers take center stage. It is estimated that new FHA guidelines made it possible for 2.5 million former homeowners to re-enter the market two years earlier than expected. Often referred to as boomerang buyers the 2.5 million new prospective shoppers are former home owners who experienced foreclosure, short sale, or deed-in-lieu agreements between September 2010 and August 2012.

The August 15th,  FHA Mortgagee Letter 2013-26, entitled, “Back to Work—Extenuating Circumstances,”  made it possible to shorten the required waiting period for former  FHA borrowers from 3 years to as little as 12 months, given certain circumstances.

On October 4th, Fannie Mae issued a major “Desktop Underwriter” upgrade announcement which will take effect November 16th. The change may allow short sale (“preforeclosure sale”) participants to re-enter the market after just two years instead of seven. Many borrowers who underwent preforeclosure sales discovered afterward that credit bureaus recorded both a preforeclosure and a foreclosure sale; imposing a seven-year penalty (standard for foreclosures) instead of appropriately applying a 2 year wait. This correction alone may create an additional wave of eligible buyers sooner than expected. During the housing crisis, 4.8 million home-owners forfeited homes due to foreclosure and 2.2 million opted for short sales, as reported by RealtyTrac and cited by CNN Money.

Many of the 7 million former owners who underwent foreclosure, short sale or deeds-in-lieu early in the housing crisis, have already rebuilt their credit and their finances and are eligible to re-enter the market even under the former guidelines.

The question is will boomerang buyers re-enter the market or remain renters?  So far this year one in ten homebuyers is a boomerang buyer. And that was prior to FHA and Fannie Mae announcements.   According to research firm John Burns Real Estate Consulting, the pace has doubled since last year. According to the 2013 National Association of Realtors (NAR) National Housing Pulse Survey 51% of renters say that “eventually owning a home is one of their highest personal priorities.” Eighty percent of Americans believe that buying is a sound decision.

Boise, Idaho Broker Mike Edgar coaches boomerang buyers back to eligibility. He consulted with more than a dozen such buyers in 2012 and expects  twofold growth this year.

The news from FHA and Fannie Mae could be the spark that millions of former owners hoped for and the lift the housing recovery needs.

For information on effective ways to manage institutional and individual portfolios nationwide, or to shop for real estate visit First Preston HT. Like us on Facebook. Follow us on Twitter .

3October

Home Sales Starting to Level Out

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Recent housing data show that the market might be cooling off.  Weak housing figures reported in July gave the Fed one reason to continue its asset purchases without tapering.  August reports from the Commerce Department last week showed a 7.9 percent increase from July in new single-family home sales.  This equates to 421,000 annualized sales vs. 390,000 annualized sales reported in July.  While this news in isolation seems to be hopeful, this figure fell marginally below economists’ expectations and is still near the lowest levels reported this year.  After some have labeled this market a bubble, it seems it might have lost its hot air.  Economist Patrick Newport from HIS Global Insight commented, “New home sales were up in August, but this market has lost momentum.”

existing home sales

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Pending Home Sales slowed in August according to The National Association of Realtors (NAR).  The Pending Home Sales Index declined 1.6 percent to 107.7 from 109.4 in July.    Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist said, “Sharply rising mortgage interest rates in the spring motivated buyers to make purchase decisions, culminating in a six-and-a-half-year peak for sales that were finalized last month.  Moving forward, we expect lower levels of existing-home sales, but tight inventory in many markets will continue to push up home prices in the months ahead.”  Some economists expect 2014 to see less than a 1 percent jump in sales.

While new home sales data appears to be decelerating, so do home prices.  The median new home price in August dropped to $254,600.  According to reports, the median price has been in decline since the month of May.  Data on existing home sales prices released from NAR mirrored that of new home sale price numbers.  The median price range is at $212,000 in August which is down from a median sales price of $213,500 in July.  This is good news for homebuyers who have been looking for declining house prices, whether new or existing.  Some industry leaders are predicting only a 5-6 percent rise in median existing home sales in 2014 with some improvement in inventory levels.

Mortgage rates are starting to fall again.  The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 4.5% and last week’s 30-year rate was 4.32 percent, according to Freddie Mac.  The Fed’s decision to delay tapering could help mortgage rates to continue on the decline if the Fed unwinds its balance sheet slowly.  Then homes sales might start to pick back up.

For information on effective ways to manage institutional and individual portfolios nationwide, or to shop for real estate visit First Preston HT. Like us on Facebook. Follow us on Twitter.

Sources: http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/
http://www.realtor.org/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics

30September

Federal Reserve Decision Benefits Homebuyers

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After the much anticipated announcement of the Federal Reserve’s decision and lots of market speculation that tapering would finally begin, Bernanke announced the continuation of its easy money policies (QE).  The markets had already baked in the expectation of tapering along with several traders making bets on the Fed’s play, only they found out the punch bowl was still flowing and wouldn’t be taken away in the near term.  Bernanke hasn’t yet seen the recovery in the economic data that he has been watching for.

Existing home sales reported a 6-1/2 year high in August showing strength in the housing market and strong demand.  According to The National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales increased 1.7 percent last month which was more than economists expected.  This increase puts sales at an annual rate of 5.48 million units.  Much of this recent rush to buy can be attributed to the expectation of rising mortgage rates and the increases in home prices.  Homebuyers want in on the action before interest rates and home prices over heat.  Bernanke’s latest announcement, however, should help to ease the 30-year fixed mortgage rate until the next Fed meeting.

TDemand for houses on property market, business metaphorhe median home sales price last month rose to $212,100; a 14.7 percent year-over-year jump.  Although inventories are still tight and as a result, prices continue to inch upward, homebuyers can still lock in a historically low mortgage rate giving them more purchasing power.  While this scenario seems great for prospective homebuyers, at some point the punch will run out and the party will end.  “Clearly the Fed has been spooked by the extent of the surge in long-term interest rates over the past couple of months and the impact that now appears to be having on the housing market.  But there is a dangerous circularity here because the initial rise in long-term rates was largely a response to the Fed hinting that it would begin to reduce its asset purchases sometime in the second half of the year,” Paul Ashworth at Capital Economics commented.

Mortgage rates fell after the Fed made its announcement.  They are still above the low of 3.35 percent seen in May but with the Fed continuing to print money, mortgage interest rates could stay around this range for a while longer, giving those who haven’t purchased yet, the opportunity to get in the game.  If interest rates withdrawal to the lower rates seen earlier in the year, it’s quite possible that more mortgage refinancing would occur.

It will be interesting to see what the next few months of housing data bring from this recent news announcement.  The housing market should experience some more positive gains if all plays out like the Fed has planned.  Growth and demand can remain strong with low interest rates and this gives homebuyers time to still purchase as rates rescind, but the underlying cost of artificially inflating the housing market remains to be determined.

For information on effective ways to manage institutional and individual portfolios nationwide, or to shop for real estate visit First Preston HT. Like us on Facebook. Follow us on Twitter.

12September

Jumbo Mortgage Rates, Not So Jumbo

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JumboRateNotOnce in a blue moon economic theories and trends break from conventional rationale.  Over the past two weeks this “blue moon” appeared in the mortgage loan market concerning conventional and jumbo mortgage rates.  For the first time that lending executives can remember, the interest rate on the jumbo 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (4.71%) dropped slightly below the conventional 30-year fixed rate of 4.73%, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.  “In my 30-year career, I’ve never seen non-conforming loans priced below conforming loans,” said Brad Blackwell, executive vice president of Wells Fargo Home Mortgage.  Typically jumbo mortgage rates are at least .25% above conventional mortgage rates.

Jumbo mortgages exceed the $417,000 limit set on conventional loans (in most areas) and are not backed by government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs).  Conventional mortgage loans fall below $417,000 and are backed by GSEs (Freddie and Fannie). So what is causing this anomaly?

Conventional mortgage loans have become more expensive due to higher guarantee fees charged by GSEs to the companies that sell their loans.  These fees have increased by more than .25% over the last three years.  The higher guarantee fees result in higher mortgage interest rates.  Conventional mortgage rates are also closely tied to how mortgage backed securities (backed by GSEs) trade; and therefore, follow the increase in mortgage backed interest rates.

Jumbo mortgage loans are a bit different in nature.  They are not as securitized as conventional mortgage loans, tend to be carried on the bank’s balance sheet, and are tied to the bank’s cost of capital, which has not increased in this environment.  Lou Barnes, a mortgage banker in Colorado commented on this situation, “Commercial banks are just desperate to book an asset that will pay something.”

Wealthy Americans are taking advance of this rare occurrence and going on a shopping spree.  According to recent data from Realty Trac, the percentage of people buying houses in the price range of $1-$2 million with a jumbo mortgage increased to 63% in July, up from 49% a year over year.  Properties priced at $2-$5 million increased to 46% from 27%.  This could be correlated to still historically low interest rates and the opportunity to buy property before prices appreciate further.  For these wealthy Americans who are still sitting on lots of cash, this is more of an investment and financial decision rather than needing a roof over their heads.  Some believe this trend could continue if the cost of capital for banks remains stable while demand for mortgage loans continues to grow at a steady pace.

For information on effective ways to manage institutional and individual portfolios nationwide, or to shop for real estate visit First Preston HT. Like us on Facebook. Follow us on Twitter.

 

Sources: http://www.mortgagebankers.org/NewsandMedia/PressCenter/85594.htm  http://www.realtytrac.com/

9September

Mortgage Applications and Home Prices Look Up

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As the markets continue to ride the proverbial roller coaster, housing data has managed to avoid such large swings and appears to be steadily chugging onward and upward; showing a clearer picture than the last few weeks.  The Mortgage Bankers Association’s mortgage application activity index reflects refinancing and home purchase demand.  It reported a 1.3% increase during the last week of August which comes off the heels of a 2.5% drop the week prior.  Last week’s refinance index increased 2% from the week before.

render of rising arrowThis increase in mortgage applications could be due in part to the 30-year mortgage rate which dropped to 4.73% from its high earlier this year of 4.80%.  The slight drop in interest rates has also encouraged current homeowners to refinance before rates go any higher, even though they are still very low.  Some economists expect that as the fed begins to taper bond purchases, the housing recovery may in the long term slow and lose its momentum, meaning mortgage applications and home prices could top out.  For now, it could encourage potential home buyers to get off the sidelines and get in the game before rates rise even more and before home prices tick even higher.

The monthly CoreLogic report indicates that home prices, including distressed homes, jumped 12.4% higher in July from a year ago (1.8% up from a month ago).  This is the 17th month in a row for home prices to increase.  “Looking ahead to the second half of the year, price growth is expected to slow as seasonal demand wanes and higher mortgage rates have a marginal impact on home purchase demand,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic.  This high number is also in part due to fewer distressed homes for sale.  Home prices were up 11.4% excluding distressed home sales over the last year.

The current supply of properties for sale is tight, which is also helping to push home prices higher.  Recently, home builders have slowed their pace of construction, not keeping pace with the demand for new homes, leading to lower inventory numbers.  Demand for housing is supported by the recently reported mortgage application numbers.  Some believe this situation won’t change much over the course of this next year.  Recalling from Econ 101, tight supply and strong demand will push home prices up whether they are new builds or existing homes.  The biggest threat to this bullish story in housing continues to be interest rates and how quickly they move up.

For information on effective ways to manage institutional and individual portfolios nationwide, or to shop for real estate visit First Preston HT.  Like us on Facebook. Follow us on Twitter.

 

Souces: http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/home-price-index-report.aspx

http://www.mbaa.org/NewsandMedia/PressCenter/85594.htm

29August

Mixed Signals in the Housing Market?

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Growing home sales graphic designThe economy and the housing market seem to be at a cross roads right now with some economic indicators showing signs of growth and others showing signs of stalling or a slight retraction.  It seems as though everyone is holding their breath to see if the Fed will decide to begin tapering this next month or continue its rounds of bond buying.

For the month of June, U.S. single-family home prices rose at a slightly slower pace than in previous months.  The S&P/Case Shiller composite index which is comprised of 20 metro areas around the U.S. rose .9% on a seasonally adjusted basis.  May’s number was a 1% increase.  If you compare home prices year-over-year in June they jumped 12.1%.  This is down slightly from May’s year over year jump of 12.2%.  Could this be a signal the housing market is cooling?

On CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street”, Robert Shiller, Case-Shiller Index co-founder & Yale University professor of economics said on Tuesday, “Obviously we’re in a housing recovery, at least for the short term…Housing is a market with momentum and right now, the momentum is up…In the single family realm, I think that there is a chance that there is a weakening and there is all this fear about the tapering… The housing market has gotten very speculative and it goes through big cycles…It’s a roller-coaster, that’s what these markets have become.”

Home prices are still up double digits from a year ago but home sales show a more mixed picture of the housing market.  Last week the new homes sales figure dropped 13.4% in July to its lowest level in 9 months.  This was well below economists’ expectations and could be attributed to the increase in mortgage rates over the last few months.  However, existing home sales for July were strong and jumped 6.5% from June according to Mortgage News Daily.  Pending home sales index showed signs of weakness; it fell 1.3% from June to July.  This could be a foreshadowing of weaker home sale closures in the next few months.

Chief economist of the National Association of Realtors (NAR), Lawrence Yun, commented on these recent housing market figures. “The modest decline in sales is not yet concerning, and contract activity remains elevated, with the South and Midwest showing no measurable slowdown.  However, higher mortgage interest rates and rising home prices are impacting monthly contract activity in the high-cost regions of the Northeast and the West.”

The month of September should give a clearer understanding of the direction of this current housing market.  Until these next figures are released, it seems that the housing market will try to decide whether it’s still in a bull market.

For information on effective ways to manage institutional and individual portfolios nationwide, or to shop for real estate visit First Preston HT.  Like us on Facebook. Follow us on Twitter.

Sources: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/data/home-sales-existing.aspx

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100993579

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100988918