Freddie Mac’s chief economist, Frank Nothaft, recently released the GSE’s “U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook for January.” The report is positive and predicts modest, but steady growth. The key points as presented in a DSNews.com article are:
- According to a survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association, “80 percent of households say now is a good time to purchase a home…” However, only “7.6 percent say now is a good time to sell.”
- Mr. Nothaft expects “a 2 percent to 5 percent increase in home sales in 2012 amid moderate economic growth over the year.”
- “There are some positive signs in the job market and consumer confidence; housing is starting to raise hopes for continued gradual economic recovery.”
- “The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index posted its highest rate since April at the end of the year—64.5.”
- “The housing market finished the year with seasonally subdued prices, rising home sales in November, and a decline in inventory to a six to seven-month supply.”
- “Freddie Mac expects the economy to grow about 2.1 percent over the first quarter of this year and real gross domestic product growth to total 2.7 percent for the year.”
The report noted counter-balancing concerns, including the fact that December’s job growth and consumer confidence levels may be seasonal and therefore could be reversed in January.
Overall key indicators demonstrate positive movement in a positive direction. For the first time in a long time, economists and analysts are cautiously using the words “gradual economic recovery.”
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At its most extreme point, the Phoenix housing market value was down 55 percent with over two-thirds of homeowners underwater. The state lost an estimated 324,000 jobs in three years, of which approximately 33 percent were in construction, according to Lee McPheters, Director of Arizona State’s JPMorgan Chase Economic Outlook Center. The Phoenix metro area endured five years of decline before realizing an astounding turnaround. According to S&P/Case Shiller, the Phoenix metropolitan area was the “only gainer” amid 20 markets surveyed in October 2011.
Clear Capital’s latest monthly Home Data Index™ indicates market stability is forecasted for 2012. If prices turn upward as predicted, this will be the “first time since 2006 that the change in annual home prices has landed in positive territory.” DSNews.com published a recap of the study on January 8.
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