The good news? The economy is finally looking up. The bad news? It will take sometime before improvement really takes hold.
MBA Chief Economist Jay Brinkmann spoke at the National Mortgage Servicing Conference & Expo in Dallas, Texas on February 25th 2011, and his outlook on the economy was overall positive, with a few areas of concern that may impact the economic change.
“Our projection is that, all things being equal, we’ll see some degree of economic growth,” said Brinkmann, “no downturn, no double-dip, no recession, with steady growth building.” He also pointed out that customer and business spending are both on the rise, great news for the economy getting back on track. Jobs are on the rise as well, although construction jobs are still a struggle to find due to the slow in new home sales.
According to Brinkmann, here are some of the problem areas in our economy right now:
- Uprisings and political unrest in Europe and the Middle East are of concern because of its effects on rising energy prices as well as importing and exporting. Brinkman believes this rise is temporary and will stabilize as protests ease.
- States struggle with balancing their budgets against huge deficits.
- Jobs and unemployment are still the number one issues in our country. Although jobs are improving in business, leisure and hospitality, blue collar jobs in construction are not yet in the recovery stage.
Finally, according to Brinkmann, only job growth and time will tell when the housing recovery will truly take place. Because of the job situation, home ownership fell in 2007 and rentals started to increase. “We’re starting to see some more household formation,” Brinkmann said, “but it’s still going to take a while to sponge up the excess housing inventory.”